I’ve looked at Adam Dunn, Alex Rios, and Gordon Beckham in detail now, and the verdict is that each had terrible 2011 seasons.  Each guy has slumped all year, none worse than Dunn.  While Sox fans might want to see them either take a backseat next year or just take a hike somewhere else, the reality is that all three probably will be back with the team next year: Dunn and Rios because of their exorbitant contracts and Beckham because he’s still young and it is too early to give up on him.  So how will they do?

Dunn: I expect Dunn to bounce back in tremendous fashion.  Yeah, that might be a little too much blind faith, but the man is a hitter, and always has been.  His numbers this season have been atrocious, and he will be the first to admit as much.  He needs to get away from baseball for a while (good thing for him the Sox aren’t getting to the playoffs, so his hiatus can begin right away) and then start taking swings again and working on his conditioning.  This way, he will come into Spring Training ready to go.  A good spring is imperative for his confidence, and once that comes back, look out.  I would think that a year from now, Dunn will have returned to his 40 home runs, 100+ RBI, and .250 average.

Rios: This is an interesting one, because I feel like he will rebound somewhere in the middle.  Rios is now into his early thirties, and while he hit 24 home runs a season ago, his power has disappeared this season.  If he bounces back with his average – and he will – will his power return, too?  I think it will to an extent.  I have no qualms saying Rios will return next year and hit in the .280s or better.  But I don’t think he will approach 30 home runs.  I would expect about 15-18, and a return to 30-40 stolen bases.  That is a bounce back year from Rios, and gives the Sox a threat from lower in the lineup.  If really bounces back, then the lineup becomes very dangerous.

Beckham:  Here’s the wildcard.  If Beckham uses this offseason to relax and focus on getting his swing back together, he should be ready for a breakout year next year.  But he has yet to show improvement at the big league level.  I cannot sit here right now and say he’s going to turn into the .300 hitter with 20-25 homerun power they think can be.  I feel like Beckham will struggle again if everything remains the status quo.  Beckham needs to be challenged in the spring, because he needs to earn the job.  And if he has earned it, then you can reasonably think that he has improved.  If he doesn’t earn it, then he should start the season in AAA.  This will be the necessary wakeup call for him.  Unfortunately, I don’t think the Sox will challenge him beyond just saying he needs to get it done this year.  And so, I foresee early season struggles for Beckham once again.  After that, I can see him either being sent down or the Sox doing something crazy such as trading him.  He needs a challenge this spring, ideally from a veteran infielder. 

So yes, things will be better, and hopefully the rest of the team plays better or the same, because if that happens, and these three play to their potential, the Sox may actually have a lethal offense in 2012.